Senegal’s domestic gas reserves shall be primarily used to supply electrical energy. Authorities count on that domestic gas infrastructure tasks will come online between 2025 and 2026, offered there is no delay. The monetization of those significant energy resources is on the basis of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the global expertise group Wärtsilä performed in-depth studies that analyse the financial impression of the varied gas-to-power strategies available to Senegal. Two very completely different technologies are competing to meet the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These studies have revealed very significant system price differences between the 2 major gas-to-power technologies the country is currently considering. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, gasoline engines are in fact a lot better suited than mixed cycle fuel generators to harness energy from Senegal’s new gasoline resources cost-effectively, the research reveals. Total value variations between the two applied sciences could attain as much as 480 million USD till 2035 depending on eventualities.
Two competing and really different applied sciences
The state-of-the-art energy combine fashions developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised vitality eventualities to determine the fee optimum approach to deliver new generation capacity for a selected nation, reveals that ICE and CCGT applied sciences current significant cost variations for the gas-to-power newbuild program running to 2035.
Although these two applied sciences are equally proven and dependable, they are very totally different in terms of the profiles by which they can operate. CCGT is a technology that has been developed for the interconnected European electrical energy markets, where it can operate at 90% load issue always. On the other hand, flexible ICE expertise can function efficiently in all operating profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to another technology applied sciences that may make up the country’s vitality combine.
In explicit our examine reveals that when working in an electricity community of limited size such as Senegal’s 1GW national grid, counting on CCGTs to considerably increase the network capability would be extremely costly in all possible eventualities.
Cost differences between the applied sciences are explained by a number of components. First of all, scorching climates negatively impression the output of fuel generators more than it does that of gasoline engines.
Secondly, because of Senegal’s anticipated access to cheap home gas, the operating prices turn out to be less impactful than the funding prices. In different phrases, as a outcome of low gas costs decrease working costs, it’s financially sound for the nation to rely on ICE energy crops, which are cheaper to construct.
Technology modularity additionally plays a key position. Senegal is expected to require an additional 60-80 MW of generation capacity every year to have the ability to meet the rising demand. This is way lower than the capacity of typical CCGTs crops which averages 300-400 MW that have to be inbuilt one go, leading to pointless expenditure. Engine power crops, on the opposite hand, are modular, which implies they can be built exactly as and when the country wants them, and further prolonged when required.
The numbers at play are significant. The mannequin exhibits that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT crops on the expense of ICE-gas, it’ll lead to as a lot as 240 million dollars of additional cost for the system by 2035. The price difference between the applied sciences can even enhance to 350 million USD in favor of ICE know-how if Senegal additionally chooses to construct new renewable vitality capability within the next decade.
Risk-managing potential gas infrastructure delays
The growth of gas infrastructure is a posh and lengthy endeavour. Program delays are not uncommon, inflicting gasoline supply disruptions that may have a huge financial impression on the operation of CCGT plants.
เครื่องวัดแรงดันเกจที่นิยมใช้ knows something about that. Only last yr, important fuel supply points have brought on shutdowns at a number of the country’s largest gas turbine energy crops. Because Gas turbines function on a steady combustion course of, they require a constant provide of gas and a steady dispatched load to generate constant energy output. If the availability is disrupted, shutdowns happen, putting a great pressure on the overall system. ICE-Gas crops on the opposite hand, are designed to adjust their operational profile over time and increase system flexibility. Because of their versatile working profile, they had been capable of preserve a much higher stage of availability
The study took a deep dive to analyse the monetary influence of two years delay in the gas infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the nation decides to invest into gasoline engines, the price of gas delay could be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would result in a staggering 770 million dollars in further value.
Whichever method you take a look at it, new ICE-Gas generation capacity will reduce the total price of electricity in Senegal in all attainable eventualities. If Senegal is to meet electrical energy demand development in a cost-optimal means, at least 300 MW of recent ICE-Gas capacity will be required by 2026.
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